Indian Politics 101 - Who will win election 2009 ?

Indian government and politics is based on the UK system of government. The central government has more powers, more money than the state governments. The Central Government is the governing authority of a federal union of 28 states and seven union territories, collectively called the Republic of India. 

The Parliament of India consists of two houses: the directly-elected 545-member Lok Sabha , the lower house, and the 250-member indirectly-elected and appointed Rajya Sabha, the upper house. The Rajya Sabha members  are elected for a term of 6 years by the state legislatures with each state having some quota. There are rolling elections every 2 years, one-third of the seats are up for grabs. To become a member of the Rajya Sabha, a person must be a citizen of India, not less than 30 years of age. He/she should be mentally sound and should not be bankrupt. He/she should also state an affidavit that there are no criminal procedures against him/her. ( That rules me out on two counts....Guess which two ?? ) . 

The Finance minister of India presents the annual union budget in the Parliament. The budget has to be passed by the Lok Sabha before it can come into effect on April 1, the start of India's fiscal year.  India's union budget for 2005–06, had an estimated outlay of Rs.5,14,344 crores ($118 billion). Earnings from taxes amount to Rs. 2,73,466 crore ($63b). India's fiscal deficit amounts to 4.5% or 1,39,231 crore ($32b). The fiscal deficit is expected to be 3.8% of GDP, by March 2007.

The Parliament seats are divided as shown. Red is Rajya Sabha and Blue is Lok Sabha. UP has 110 ( 80 + 30 ). 

Its clear from this graph that 12 states ( with more than 30 LS+RS seats )  hold all the power when it comes to getting a majority. AP, Bihar, Gujrat, Karnataka, MP, Maharashtra, Orissa, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, UP, West Bengal. I suggest you stand for election from one of these states if you want to become Prime Minister of India some day :) . Unfortunately this logic has resulted in the formation of many local state level political  parties from these states that play a big role in the formation of government.The heads of all these dumb parties want to be PM some day.  Now the two major political parties Congress and BJP have been consistently loosing power to these parties. The so called national parties have not been able to get a majority for a long long time. India has had only coalition governments for a long time thanks to the multi party system. 

There are about 250 people in the Indian Parliament with criminal cases pending  ranging from murder, rape, extortion, kidnapping, booth capturing, Tax evasion etc. At least 50 of these are hard core criminals. Even Rahul Gandhi have a case of tax evasion pending. 

So we come back to the main question.....who will win election 2009 ?

Lets say the Congress, BJP and Third Front(+other parties) divide the votes equally, they all get one third. Then what will happen is the Third Front will split and parties will join either BJP or Congress. This is where these criminals come in. They need to be with the ruling coalition if they want to stay out of jail.  Here comes the tricky part .... Now comes the question ....who can get more support, the BJP or Congress. Finally it will come down to money. Seats will be bought and sold like commodity. Now you may ask, which party has more money power on its side ? 

The answer is obvious if you saw the recent vibrant Gujrat summit. Gujrat attracted investment of over $ 250 billion. To put that into context ...that's 5 times the tax collected by central government. Both Anil Ambani and Sunil Mittal endorsed Modi as their PM candidate in the presence of Mukesh Ambani, Ratan Tata and many prominent Industrialists. These Industrialists have to get a friendly and favorable government at any cost,  to consolidate their hold on the Indian Consumer in these times of financial crisis. They cant afford to lose. Secondly, they would never openly support a party unless they were pretty fucking sure it will win. 

Hence BJP and its allies will come to power this election. Its inevitable. 

I dare you to find a flaw in my logic. The Think Tank has spoken ..... 

Having said all this, I would also like to make it very clear that I do not intend to exercise my vote for as long as I live. I find the entire exercise pointless. The main reason for this is that the Indian electorate has a maximum memory of 2-3 years, how else could you explain the presence of two political parties in a particular state coming to power in alternate elections and never winning two elections consecutively. Ideally, a party that has come to power and failed should never be able to come back to power in the future, but the dum people just don't learn from their mistakes, I have dedicated my life to doing exactly opposite of what the majority does.  

  

Vijay Mallya - The Biggest loooooser of the 21st century

As of 2008 Vijay Mallya was ranked as the 962nd richest person in the world and the 42nd in India with a net worth of US $1.2 Billion. So naturally you may ask - How is he a looser ? (Note - I use loser with a double 'o' , because mallya has taken it to a whole new level.) The only successful business run by him was inherited from his father. This is the business that keeps him afloat. If you take away United Breweries, Mallya would be a bankrupt beggar.

1) Force India F1 - Mallya likes to make most of his business decisions when he is piss drunk. God knows what he was thinking. He paid 88 Million euros for the team, thats around $ 150 million. He is investing a further $ 100 Million in making the Delhi/Noida race track. It will actually be a street race like Monaco. LOL. Imagine a F1 street race in India. I can see the headlines now. All cars fail to finish- first time ever in the history of F1. Two drivers puked their hearts out and died at 300kmph on the bumpy Indian Roads. He acquired the worst team in Formula 1 and did something noone could have imagined- made it even worse. At least as Spykar Ferraris they used to finish races. Now its a big deal if both Force India cars remain in the race after the third turn of the first lap. As far as the track in Delhi goes ...I think a street race can never be successful in India, maintaining the track is just impossible. I dont know how he plans to make the investment profitable. For one thing, to get the crouds will be easy only in the first few years, lets face it F1 is only interesting on TV. I think he will collect toll tax from the drivers during the race. Once every lap. :)
In Fact I blame mallya's Force India Team for driving away FIIs from the Indian Stock Market. We should sue him for using the countries name and bringing disgrace to it.


2) Bangalore Royal Challengers - The whole team strategy goes something like this - Dravid and Jaffer will play solid defense in the first fifteen overs, and then in the last five overs ........THATS ALLLL ... with 9 wickets in hand ....we can hit 200 runs easily. The names that Mallya considered before naming his team were Bangalore KingFishers, Bangalore Bagpipers, Bangalore Old monks, Bangalore Zingaros and Bangalore Sand Pipers. But he went with the Royal Challengers Name cause basically all the teams were putting that 'King' factor in their team names....Rajasthan 'Royals' , chennai super'kings' , 'king's 11 punjab. As I said ...noone likes to put stress on brain when drunk. :) . A word of advice for Mr.Mallya- 30*6 = 180, You drunk bastard.

3) Kingfisher Airlines - Mallya said his airline would break even in 2007 when he launched it in 2005. Now he says it will break even in 2010-12. Industry experts believe he will not get there before 2015 even in the best case. He took a 46% stake in Deccan for Rs.1000 crores, a company with an accumulated loss of Rs.420 crores. In 2006 kingfisher made a loss of 240 crore and in 2007 it made a loss of almost 600 crore. I couldn't find the 2008 loss because it is not a listed company and they don't have to declare results. With rising oil prices and Mallya's knack for burning money, in my opinion it will easily cross the 1000 crore mark. They probably didn't declare results out of overwhelming shame. Last year Mallya looked into the possibility of an IPO. I don't think any investment bank would be dumb enough to touch that company with a stick from 10 meters away wearing a bullet proof suite. With no end in sight, Mallya continues with his "never say die as long as booze sells itself" attitude. With assets (read debt) of over 1billion and orders for new jets worth over 2 billion. I predict the total money sunk into Kingfisher is about $ 2 billion as of now. With yearly losses of about $ 200 million and the fuel price only rising there is no end in sight for this company. Now they are looking to get capital from Private Equity firms. I pity the fool who is dumb enough to buy Mallyas story and buy into the airline. I quote from a popular news site
"With combined accumulated losses of around Rs 2,000 crore ($ 500 million), the new entity created by the merger of unlisted Kingfisher Airlines with Deccan Aviation will have many strengths, but its balance sheet will not be one of them"
Total debt (including loss and money borrowed to buy assets) - about $1 Billion

4) Rajya Sabha MP- My ASS !!!
His party ( Janata Party, a breakaway faction of the original Janata Dal party) contested almost all of the 224 seats during the Karnataka State legislative election. He campaigned vigorously through the media, but his party failed to make any impact and did not win a single seat. Following the party's failure in the elections, it has been largely ignored by the media.
I searched for about an hour to find something useful he has done for the people of India. Couldn't find even one instance. Please let me know if you can find something that he has done that is even vaguely in the publics interest.

In conclusion I think Mallya should leave Business and Politics to the big boys and concentrate on doing what he does best - Get drunk in lavish parties, sell booze and distribute calendars of semi-naked chicks. Oh wait - naked chicks and booze sell themselves. Guess only thing left to do is get drunk!!! I don't blame him for his flamboyant ways. I would have probably done the same if I inherited UB group.

His whole business strategy seems to work on the concept of "Conties" as we called it in IIT . He basically wants to make contacts with High Networth Individuals (HNIs) and trick them into being a business partner, which seems to be the only logical reason to enter Politics, F1 and Aviation.
This pompous prick is sooooo in love with himself that he even named his son "Sidhartha Vijay Mallya". At this rate the only thing Sidhartha can look forward to inheriting is a truck load of debt and a Maaajar Hangover and headache.

The Great Indian Budget 2008

1) Taxes reduced - $ NAICE
Huge tax cuts, brilliantly done, everyone is happy but I'm sorry mister finance minister, you wont win the next elections.

There is this theory about elections in India that I formulated.
In a country of a billion people about 700 million people at least are bound to be pissed off at all times because they are jealous of the 30% who are well off. Thus 70% of the population is always pissed off. Anyone who is pissed off will obviously vote for a change of government. If these people were smart, they would try to solve their own problems instead of waiting for the government to provide them livelihood. Since we Indians like our problems being solved by someone else, this situation isnt going to change anytime soon. So for the next elections it is -- BJP zindabad !!!


2) Small Cars and Two wheelers to cost less - $ Naice

Please fuck up the already fucked up infrastructure. It takes 2 hours to travel 5 kms in Bombay during peak traffic hours. A time will come in India, in the not so far future, when every Indian will have 2 cars and 4 Bikes and No Roads and No Oil . OOOIIIIILLLL - The three letter word that is completely raping the Indian Economy. The reason for our huge fiscal deficit. The bulk of our Imports. Why don't we just attack one of the oil countries like the US ... We have the fucking Bomb !!! We don't take shit from Nobody !!!!

Lets attack Iran, the US wants to do it anyway. Let us form a "coalition" of anti-terrorist, freedom fighting- fuck islam, mujahiddin, jihadi- food for oil giving countries. We can name it the CATFFFIMJFFOGC .

So instead of giving 60,000 crores to the farmers lets use that money to take over Iran and on the way to Iran we could fuck Pakistan as well .... When we have finished our conquest, we will sell their oil and feed our farmers ( Oil - for - food ) thus ending the crisis.

Make me Finance minister fast !!!!!

3) 50 crores for Tiger Conservation Fund - LOL

Hahahahhahahehehehheheheh

wait ...wait......

hahahahahahahhahaheheehhehehhahuhuhuhuhuhuhuhuuhuhuhu


OK OK ...Im fine now ....sorry ... I was laughing at the Irony. I think the money could have been put to good use were there any tigers left. It is a step to show that the government is trying to do something for the tiger without actually doing anything.

The days of the beautiful wild cat is numbered. If you think that 20 years from now you can take your kids to the zoo and watch tigers , U ARE DREAMING.

I am thinking of writing, directing and producing a movie called Jurassic Park-7 . It is about a story in the future. Hundreds of years from now they find a mosquito in tree sap that had bit a tiger . They extract the tiger-DNA from the mosquito and bring the cat back to earth on a small island. I havent decided on an ending yet ...maybe one you can help me and co-produce the movie with me. ;)


HOW TO MAKE MONEY, BUDGET-2008 STYLE

1) Take a loan.
Buy a farm. ( Less than 2 hectares )
Make money from the farm. (Grow weed )
Default on the Loan.
Let the government waiver the loan every 4 years . ( They do it only for land <2>80) businessman in India never discloses his income, to avoid paying taxes . Now we have hoards of millionaire businessmen with acres of land paying absolutely nothing to get the best "education" India has to offer for their children. The government policy is to reward the farmers who were too dumb to know what to grow and how to grow it. Now I know that the farmers in India are facing major problems, but rewarding the ones who arent productive is no way of encouraging the ones who are working their asses off to pay back their loans and who are actually helping the country.

The government waivers loans worth 60,000 crores and outlines 800 crores for power generation. Can you guess which way the country is headed ?

Disclaimer : I wish to acknowledge the work that Mr.Chidambram has done. I have a lot of respect for him and I think that there is no person more suitable for the job. The task that he faces is monumental and nobody in their right mind would take up this huge responsibility. So I thank him for carrying the burden and doing a great job.