Monday, March 23, 2009

Indian Politics 101 - Who will win election 2009 ?


Indian government and politics is based on the UK system of government. The central government has more powers, more money than the state governments. The Central Government is the governing authority of a federal union of 28 states and seven union territories, collectively called the Republic of India. 

The Parliament of India consists of two houses: the directly-elected 545-member Lok Sabha , the lower house, and the 250-member indirectly-elected and appointed Rajya Sabha, the upper house. The Rajya Sabha members  are elected for a term of 6 years by the state legislatures with each state having some quota. There are rolling elections every 2 years, one-third of the seats are up for grabs. To become a member of the Rajya Sabha, a person must be a citizen of India, not less than 30 years of age. He/she should be mentally sound and should not be bankrupt. He/she should also state an affidavit that there are no criminal procedures against him/her. ( That rules me out on two counts....Guess which two ?? ) . 


The Finance minister of India presents the annual union budget in the Parliament. The budget has to be passed by the Lok Sabha before it can come into effect on April 1, the start of India's fiscal year.  India's union budget for 2005–06, had an estimated outlay of Rs.5,14,344 crores ($118 billion). Earnings from taxes amount to Rs. 2,73,466 crore ($63b). India's fiscal deficit amounts to 4.5% or 1,39,231 crore ($32b). The fiscal deficit is expected to be 3.8% of GDP, by March 2007.

The Parliament seats are divided as shown. Red is Rajya Sabha and Blue is Lok Sabha. UP has 110 ( 80 + 30 ). 





Its clear from this graph that 12 states ( with more than 30 LS+RS seats )  hold all the power when it comes to getting a majority. AP, Bihar, Gujrat, Karnataka, MP, Maharashtra, Orissa, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, UP, West Bengal. I suggest you stand for election from one of these states if you want to become Prime Minister of India some day :) . Unfortunately this logic has resulted in the formation of many local state level political  parties from these states that play a big role in the formation of government.The heads of all these dumb parties want to be PM some day.  Now the two major political parties Congress and BJP have been consistently loosing power to these parties. The so called national parties have not been able to get a majority for a long long time. India has had only coalition governments for a long time thanks to the multi party system. 

There are about 250 people in the Indian Parliament with criminal cases pending  ranging from murder, rape, extortion, kidnapping, booth capturing, Tax evasion etc. At least 50 of these are hard core criminals. Even Rahul Gandhi have a case of tax evasion pending. 

So we come back to the main question.....who will win election 2009 ?

Lets say the Congress, BJP and Third Front(+other parties) divide the votes equally, they all get one third. Then what will happen is the Third Front will split and parties will join either BJP or Congress. This is where these criminals come in. They need to be with the ruling coalition if they want to stay out of jail.  Here comes the tricky part .... Now comes the question ....who can get more support, the BJP or Congress. Finally it will come down to money. Seats will be bought and sold like commodity. Now you may ask, which party has more money power on its side ? 

The answer is obvious if you saw the recent vibrant Gujrat summit. Gujrat attracted investment of over $ 250 billion. To put that into context ...that's 5 times the tax collected by central government. Both Anil Ambani and Sunil Mittal endorsed Modi as their PM candidate in the presence of Mukesh Ambani, Ratan Tata and many prominent Industrialists. These Industrialists have to get a friendly and favorable government at any cost,  to consolidate their hold on the Indian Consumer in these times of financial crisis. They cant afford to lose. Secondly, they would never openly support a party unless they were pretty fucking sure it will win. 

Hence BJP and its allies will come to power this election. Its inevitable. 

I dare you to find a flaw in my logic. The Think Tank has spoken ..... 


Having said all this, I would also like to make it very clear that I do not intend to exercise my vote for as long as I live. I find the entire exercise pointless. The main reason for this is that the Indian electorate has a maximum memory of 2-3 years, how else could you explain the presence of two political parties in a particular state coming to power in alternate elections and never winning two elections consecutively. Ideally, a party that has come to power and failed should never be able to come back to power in the future, but the dum people just don't learn from their mistakes, I have dedicated my life to doing exactly opposite of what the majority does.  


  






16 comments:

crazyfrog said...

At last some one with a brain in India. Wonderful article Adi. I am hoping there are more Indians like you. I am not voting either.

C-lay said...

Majboot neta nirnaayak sarkar..Bhajpa ...Lol Max !!!

Benaam said...

well... random reasoning... :D but ok with result !

Howeudoinnnnnn!! said...

Kya fart hai. I agree with Mahek who says this is random reasoning. Industrialists are supporting Modi because he is most favourable to industrialisation, not because BJP is going to win the election. In other words, they want people to root for Modi. Even not necessarily the BJP. Hence its more like who they 'want' to go PM. Maybe they can pull more strings with BJP. Fact of the matter though is that Ambanis and Mittals are so big that the government needs them more than them needing the government.

Benaam said...

http://welcome-to-blogganpur.blogspot.com/2009/04/who-gets-my-vote.html

maybe you could vote on this basis??

C-lay said...

@Howeudoinnnn aka STICK
I agree the reasoning is random, but it is reasoning nonetheless.
Newton's Laws being derived from an apple falling from a tree was random reasoning too if u think about it :)

@Mahek
Very interesting analysis of the various political parties in India, I could easily vote on this basis, but i think it would be easier not to :)

Mehreen Kashif said...

Hi everybody
what do you think about kashmiri peoples.
Recently i visit this blog.
This blog showing some truth.

http://freedom-movement-in-kashmir.blogspot.com

what do you think about it.

Lipun said...

Pehle batao aap ka Irada kya he.Are u a "JACK OF ALL TRADES".U know why Sonia Gandhi has no car.She saved the money to buy a MP after the election.I hope all politicians follwed this tech.U can guess how much money they have saved for this.

Lipun said...

Now give me one answer.After aug 15 1947 Congress won all the seats in elections.It made the govt. alone.Now why it is one of the struggling party in India.I agree that H.E. Mahatma Gandhi has given us a lot of things.but his next gen also taken a lot things from us too.Talking abt rahul Gandhi What he knows abt India????!!!!!Dose he hav any qualification to be a PM of India(except Gandhi family successor).

C-lay said...

I think Rahul Gandhi would make an awesome PM. He will try to fulfill all of his dads dreams. Also I think he practices true "Gandhism" ... not like munnabhai

I would love to see him charm world leaders with his dimples :)

@Kat
wat do i think about the Kashmiri people ??

They are holding India back !!! If we give them freedom, they will be run over by Talibs and Mullahs in no time. Khud toh marenge hi, hume bhi marwaenge !!!

Benaam said...

@C-lay: well... if charming the world leaders gets things working for us... then why not send all miss India's and other models to charm them regularly...

or are you suggesting world leaders(mostly men) are gay and would prefer him? lol...

@kat: Here is a short story for you...

An ingenious example of speech and politics occurred recently in the United Nations Assembly that made the world community smile..

A representative from India began: 'Before beginning my talk I want to tell you something about a rishi named Kashyapa of Kashmir (Kashyapa, son of Marichi, son of Brahma), after whom Kashmir is named.
When he struck a rock and it brought forth water, he thought, 'What a good opportunity to have a bath.' He removed his clothes, put them aside on the rock and entered the water. When he got out and wanted to dress, his clothes had vanished. A Pakistani had stolen them.'
The Pakistani representative jumped up furiously and shouted, 'What are you talking about? The Pakistanis weren't there at that time.'
The Indian representative smiled and said, 'And now that we have made that clear, I will begin my speech".


...............And they say Kashmir belongs to them.

@Lipun: Rahul spends 2k every fortnight on hair cuts.... so he cant afford much luxury... but nano is cheap...

C-lay said...

BJP Lost :)
I underestimated the average indians intelligence.

I have no issues ...sensex jumped 2k on a single day. There are fewer criminals in parliament. We have people from Harvard, Wharton, Tufts, Stanford and IIT in the cabinet.

http://alaktus.blogspot.com/2009/05/manmohans-team.html

I think india will overtake China in 10 years...But then again I could be wrong :) LOL... SHIT HAPPENS

Benaam said...

As someone righlty said, "Welcome to hell"

Its ok... no issues.. but i hope this government does something on population control.. :)

C-lay said...

they should neuter you mahek :) Lol

Benaam said...

oh... atleast some one is thinking the right way... :D

population control and population elimination are two different things... :P

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